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    我国时隔两年豆粕价格与大豆成本再次打平

    市场分析 2020-03-26 79 0 0
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    近阶段,我国豆粕市场因进口大豆到港延迟、多数油厂停机减产而较预期更为紧张,再叠加美豆盘面追随美豆粕涨势、全球新冠疫情蔓延下短期南美物流担忧的题材炒作等,我们看到市场多头情绪重燃,豆粕期现货市场涨势超出预期,看涨期权更是大显杠杆之威力。我国大豆供应拐点或推迟到5月之后甚至6月,油厂榨利丰厚,豆粕单边或还有上探机会。JCI也观察到,在多重因素助推下,目前我国豆粕现货价格已再次超越进口大豆加工成本,上次出现这种情况则是2018年10月中美贸易战正酣的背景下。外盘市场方面:3月25日(星期三)CBOT大豆期货收盘下跌。抹去早盘升幅,受压于农户卖出和豆粕急挫,交易员因跨市场套利买入豆油并卖出豆粕。美国疫情还在不断蔓延扩大,中美关系也因此似乎走向恶化。3月25日外电报道称,消息人士的话:美国欲在二十国集团视频峰会期间就沙特阿拉伯计划增加石油产量一事对其施加影响。此外,美元强劲反弹令外界再度猜测,如果美元进一步走高,美国可能出手干预。 1、内外市场共振,我国豆粕期现货市场多头情绪重燃

    本周以来,伴随着美豆粕/美豆的回升以及周末我国豆粕现货市场强势,我国连粕主力开盘跳涨、强势上行收至涨停,内外市场形成共振;我国连粕市场上一次涨停还是在2019年4月初,当时推动因素来自于中美贸易形势的恶化;本周三(3月25日)M2009合约盘中最高触及2976元/吨,而去年同期09合约则仅为2600元/吨。国内各地工厂豆粕现货价格则在终端渠道消化积极、油厂停机减产比重较大以及巴西装运担忧助攻,等一系列因素的推动下大幅上涨,截至目前,华北、山东地区厂商现货报价站上3200元/吨,华东地区集中3150元/吨-3180元/吨,较上周初集中涨幅达到250元/吨-270元/吨,较春节后因物流受限一波涨势的高点高出100-150元/吨,近远月豆粕基差也水涨船高。

    2、我国豆粕现价再超大豆加工成本,不同时间点同一时间段呈现

    作为对比,现阶段国内沿海地区油厂的大豆压榨成本在3100元/吨附近,当然这是约两个月前的油厂点价成本,已经远远低于当前主流油厂的豆粕报价水平(不同时空的价格,出现在当前同一时间段的最终呈现),市场人士称,如果美豆点价节奏再晚一拍,可能工厂榨利会更加丰厚,尤其是华北地区尤其高,这也是国内油厂保持周度30-40船巴西大豆采购节奏的重要原因。而国内豆粕现货价格超过进口大豆加工成本的同样场景,曾经出现在2016年11月和2018年10月份,前者因进口大豆到港延迟且国内基差合同预售强劲,后者则因中美贸易战两国关系恶化,这一点我们将在后面的报告中详细阐述比较。

    3、我国豆粕市场核心矛盾在于供应不确定,关注未来两周装运速度 对于我国豆粕市场而言,自年初以来的此轮震荡牛市属于独立行情,目前业内关注的核心问题依然在于供应预期的最大不确定性,国内市场前期就一直在讨论因降雨等因素导致的巴西大豆对华装船速度放缓,而导致的近月我国大豆到港节奏延迟,目前南美新冠疫情的发酵与国内豆粕现货强势的背景下,国内连粕市场释放了多头动力,毋庸置疑短期行情依然偏强。进入3月下旬,部分地区油厂开机率小幅回升,但仍处于偏低水平,预计豆粕库存进一步收紧,油厂现货可售比例很小,普遍限制开单;部分终端用户仍在尽力增加物理库存以防止阶段性缺货。值得关注的是,新冠疫情蔓延对于南美市场的最关键影响在于后方产区,前端港口现阶段的对华装运排船量巨大近1150万吨;虽然整体3月份的船货有延迟,但3月份对华装运量达到930万吨,4月份排船量则达到770万吨,预计从5月份开始大豆到港量开始回升,而4-5月份巴西港口乃至产区至港口的物流运输存在隐忧,但已在国内豆粕现货行情中有所反应,未来1-2周的装运速度较为关键,一旦有变数则将影响后期到货,暂时预计5月之后供应转为宽松。

    综上所述,汇易网资讯认为,3-4月份国内豆粕供应端较之前预期更紧张,市场多头情绪重燃(油厂榨利丰厚、终端渠道消化积极,再加上避险投机资金进场),以及美豆跟随美豆粕反弹,巴西因新冠病毒疫情装运担忧适时助攻,我国豆粕期现市场涨势超出预期,甚至再现豆粕现货价格超过进口大豆加工成本的现象,当然这是不同时间点的价格,在同一时间点呈现的结果,具有一定的时间差。JCI预计未来国内进口大豆供应拐点或在5月份甚至6月份,当然也要关注正处于疫情防控艰难阶段的南美诸国的物流形势,需要谨慎极端情况的出现,因而对于我国豆粕终端市场而言,不妨在保持正常库存水平的基础上,逢低适量增加备货,若结合期权工具的应用则效果更佳。

    来源:中国汇易网;作者:XXX;农产品期货网转载本文仅为传播更多信息为目的,并不表示本网认可文中作者观点。若转载文章作者有认为本网有不妥之处,请致电本网010-51289506联系,本网将立即与您磋商并解决相关事宜。

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